The projections below are generated by a Supercomputer, in collaboration with Opta, which has run simulations of the season based on the published fixture schedule and insights from the first 15 rounds.
A concerning pattern at the bottom of the standings is expected to finally break this year. In both 2023/24 and 2024/25, all three newly promoted teams were relegated immediately. But if the Supercomputer’s current forecast holds true, Sunderland will avoid the drop this time.
That said, Burnley are still expected to see their struggles deepen under Scott Parker. The promoted club is projected to end the season in 19th place with 32 points.
Leeds United also face a grim outlook. Despite earning four points against Chelsea and Liverpool, they are predicted to finish 18th.
They are expected to end the campaign level on points with West Ham United, who are anticipated to continue their downturn following Graham Potter’s dismissal and Nuno Espirito Santo’s appointment. ..Continue Reading
However, the Irons are forecast to survive due to a better goal difference, assuming the Supercomputer’s model plays out.
Opta’s algorithm also suggests Wolverhampton Wanderers – still winless after 15 matches – won’t recover from their poor start and are set to remain at the bottom through to May.
That’s hardly unexpected, but fans at Molineux will be hoping that new local boss Rob Edwards can pull off something extraordinary.
Interestingly, the Supercomputer anticipates just a 10-point gap between Burnley in 19th and Nottingham Forest in 16th, hinting at a relegation fight that could last all 12 remaining rounds and be decided in the final moments of the season.
The Tricky Trees recently appointed their third manager of the campaign in Sean Dyche, but results aren’t expected to improve significantly, even after a shock 3-0 win at Anfield. That optimism was quickly dampened by a 3-0 defeat to Everton in gameweek 15.
Fulham are projected to finish 15th, four spots lower than their 2024/25 standing.
The Cottagers continue to fall short of breaking into the next tier, unlike some of their peers who have progressed. Among their London rivals, only West Ham are predicted to finish lower. Marco Silva will undoubtedly demand more from his team by season’s end.
Position | Club | Points
15. Fulham – 45
16. Nottingham Forest – 42
17. West Ham United – 38
18. Leeds United – 38
19. Burnley – 32
20. Wolverhampton Wanderers – 22
Bottom Half
Given current form, it’s hard to believe Sunderland will end up as low as 14th. While that’s a respectable finish for a team recently promoted after a stint in League One, they currently sit ninth with only four defeats.
At this rate, it wouldn’t be surprising if Regis Le Bris led the Black Cats to a top-half finish, especially after holding Arsenal and staging a comeback to beat Bournemouth 3-2.
Speaking of Bournemouth, they looked set to build on last season’s near-European finish under Andoni Iraola. However, despite a strong start, they’re now forecast to drop to 13th, a slight disappointment given their early promise.
Their defensive frailties, exposed after a summer of departures, could become more evident as the season progresses.
Brentford, meanwhile, would be pleased with a top-half push after a turbulent summer that saw Bryan Mbuemo join Manchester United, Yoane Wissa move to Newcastle, and Thomas Frank take over at Tottenham.
These exits, along with previous key losses, left Keith Andrews with a major rebuilding task. So far, he’s managed to keep the Bees competitive. Currently 14th, they’re just four points off the top 10 and are projected to finish just outside it.
Everton entered the season with high expectations. Backed by new American ownership, a fresh stadium, and marquee signings like Jack Grealish, David Moyes appeared poised to spark a revival at Bramley-Moore Docks.
If the Supercomputer’s prediction of an 11th-place finish proves accurate, it would mark progress from last season’s 13th.
Despite setbacks against Leeds, Tottenham, and Newcastle, the Toffees have enjoyed notable wins over Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth.
Position | Club | Points
11. Everton – 54
12. Brentford – 51
13. Bournemouth – 50
14. Sunderland – 48
Top Half
Reigning Europa League champions Tottenham Hotspur are predicted to finish in 10th. For a team that ended up just above the relegation zone a year ago, that would typically be seen as progress.
However, a recent disconnect between the squad, supporters, and leadership has increased pressure on Thomas Frank, worsened by a stretch of five winless matches in the league.
Their displays have been underwhelming, creating a downward spiral in recent weeks as poor form has overtaken early promise.
Still, their 2-0 win against Brentford might give the north London side the spark they need to recover.
Brighton and Hove Albion have quietly gone about their business this season, while other surprise packages have taken the spotlight – a role they once embraced under Graham Potter and Roberto De Zerbi.
Now led by Fabian Hurzeler, the team appears to be progressing steadily – a reflection of maturity for the Seagulls, who are projected to finish ninth with 57 points, though a European spot isn’t out of the question.
Manchester United have suffered just one defeat since their humbling 3-1 loss at Brentford, but a disappointing draw with West Ham threatened to dampen spirits at Old Trafford.
After a dominant win over Wolves, the supercomputer now projects the Red Devils to finish eighth — not ideal for a club of their stature, but a step up from a poor 2024/25 campaign.
Newcastle United have been inconsistent this season, with their 3-1 defeat to Brentford standing out as a low point.
However, victories over Manchester City, Everton, and Burnley could reignite their campaign. As a result, the Magpies are forecast to end the season in seventh, despite currently sitting in 12th.
Despite a massive summer outlay — including breaking the British transfer record twice to sign Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak, and adding Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez, Giovanni Leoni, and Hugo Ekitike — Liverpool are expected to fall short of defending their title, finishing sixth with 61 points, a full 19 points behind the champions.
The season began with Arne Slot’s side snatching late winners. But as teams have exploited their vulnerability to long balls, Liverpool have dropped points in four of their last five league fixtures.
The atmosphere around the club has dipped, highlighted by Mohamed Salah’s recent comments, which could see the reigning champions miss out on a Champions League spot.
Crystal Palace lifted the FA Cup — their first major trophy — last season, and have shown they’re here to stay by defeating Liverpool twice to launch another promising campaign.
They first won the Community Shield, then ended Arne Slot’s perfect start to the season. Predicted to finish fifth, the south London club would gladly accept that after years of mid-table obscurity.
Position | Club | Points
5. Crystal Palace – 61
6. Liverpool – 61
7. Newcastle United – 58
8. Manchester United – 57
9. Brighton & Hove Albion – 57
10. Tottenham Hotspur – 54
Top Four
Chelsea fans were the most hopeful in the country heading into the new season, according to a survey.
So, ending up in fourth — 18 points behind the champions — might not sit well in west London.
Still, qualifying for the Champions League twice under Enzo Maresca, after struggling to do so during the early Todd Boehly era, is no small feat — especially if they add more silverware to make it three trophies in 24 months under their current boss.
After a shaky start, Aston Villa are projected to finish third under Unai Emery.
They failed to score in their first four games, but have since won 12 of their last 14, finding rhythm in both domestic and European competitions.
Though PSR concerns may be weighing on their manager, he continues to guide the West Midlands club to a strong position.
Meanwhile, Manchester City, currently in a transitional phase, are expected to finish second.
Their recent form has improved, coinciding with Erling Haaland’s scoring spree — including three-goal involvements in a 5-4 win over Fulham — but it won’t be enough to catch Arsenal.
The Gunners are tipped to finally end a 20-year title drought, finishing seven points clear of Man City. This is despite a slip-up against Villa in gameweek 15, only their second defeat of the season.
Arteta’s long-term project appears to be paying off, and if they do lift the trophy as predicted, it could mark the beginning of a dominant era. For some clubs, one title is all it takes to spark a cascade of success. If Arsenal, long considered one of the biggest clubs never to win the Champions League, claim the Premier League crown, it could spell trouble for their rivals in the years to come.
Position | Club | Points
1. Arsenal – 80
2. Manchester City – 73
3. Aston Villa – 68
4. Chelsea – 62
